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II. State of play
32. The global labour force in 2005 amounted to 2.8 billion people, 2.25 billion of were from developing countries. Based on 2005 data, the United Nations estimates that some 200 million people live outside their country of birth, up from 175 million in 2000. Persisting demographic and economic imbalances between the North and the South will lead to a steady rise with or without immigration-related barriers and policies at the borders. According to demographic projections in North America, Europe, the Russian Federation, the high-income countries of East Asia and the Pacific and China, the total labour force in those areas will lose 29 million people by 2025 and 244 million by 2050. This trend contrasts with 32 projections for the developing countries, mainly in South and Central Asia and in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the labour force is expected to swell to about 1.55 billion people by 2050.
33. The flow of temporary migrants to the developed countries has grown in recent years, owing partly to new legislation and the procedures easing the requirements for admission for certain occupations. The number of work permits issued in the United Kingdom, for instance, rose from 85,600 in 2000 to 115,700 in 2001. Sectors that recorded the highest increase were education (100 per cent), health care (over 40 per cent) and computer technology (roughly 25 per cent). In Japan, the number of foreigners who were granted temporary residence for employment reasons – mostly entertainers – grew by 10 per cent in 2000–2001. As a result of Germany’s green-card programme instituted in August 2000, the number of foreigners employed in the health-care sector increased threefold, and more than 13,000 green cards were granted to foreign computer engineers. In the United States, the quota of highly qualified temporary visa holders rose sharply in 2001, although recent developments point to a more restrictive immigration regime. In fact, the United States 33 Congress has opposed further increases in current quotas for foreign workers. An upward trend in inflows of seasonal workers has also been observed, with the European Union employing some 500,000 seasonal agricultural workers from countries outside the EU-15 every year. Further, not all migrants are low skilled and poor; 6 out of 10 highly educated migrants living in OECD countries in 2000 came from developing countries.
34. In 2005 the stock of immigrants in the high-income OECD countries was 90.9 million, or 9.8 per cent of the population. Of these, 27.7 per cent originated from other high-income OECD countries; 4.8 per cent, from high-income non-OECD countries; 11.6 per cent, from lowincome countries and 54.4 per cent, from middleincome countries.The preferred destinations for immigrants are the United States, Germany, France, Canada, the United Kingdom, Spain, Australia, Italy, Japan and Switzerland. The stock of immigrants in high-income non-OECD countries is 21.6 million or 33.6 per cent of the population. Some 3.7 per cent of these immigrants come from high-income OECD countries, 30.8 per cent, from low-income countries and 47.6 per cent, from middle-income countries.
35. Temporary movement of labour is not restricted to movement from developing to developed countries; there are considerable flows of temporary workers among developing countries as well. It is estimated that just as many migrants move from developing to developed countries as move from one developing country to another. The oil-producing countries in Western Asia and other more advanced developing Asian countries, such as Singapore, the Republic of Korea and Malaysia, serve as the more popular destination countries. In 2005 the remittances sent back by South–South migrants was estimated by the World Bank at $19–53 billion. Undocumented and large-scale economic migration also takes place between neighbouring developing countries, for example, in South Asia between India, Bangladesh and Nepal; in Africa between South Africa and its neighbours and between neighbouring Latin American countries. In fact, almost 80 per cent of South–South migration takes place between neighbouring countries with contiguous borders.
36. The distinction between sending and receiving countries as being the traditional North–South dividing line is gradually becoming more blurred, as many sending countries are also receiving countries. At conservative estimates, some 74 million people, nearly half of the migrants from developing countries, reside in other developing countries. Most South–South migration appears to occur between countries with relatively small differences in income. For example, World Bank estimates in 2005 put India's stock of immigrants, largely from neighbouring countries, at 5,700,147 people or 0.5 per cent of the population. Its stock of emigrants, many of whom moved to other developing countries in South-East and West Asia, was estimated in 2005 at 9,987,129 people or 0.9 per cent of India's total population. An interesting trend of South–South immigration is the hub-and-spokes phenomenon whereby an economically more developed country acts as a magnet for migrants from its lesser developed neighbours. Trends in immigration to the Russian Federation, South Africa and India exhibit this feature; migration corridors between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, and between Bangladesh and India rank second and third behind the United States– Mexico migration corridor.
37. The North–North and South–South movements of labour are often triggered by similar complementarities and push-pull factors. In addition, regional agreements, such as those concluded in the European Union, and free trade agreements, such the North American Free Trade Agreement, have given the movement of people a further impetus. This movement of labour encompasses all skill levels and is characterized by a growing feminization of temporary labour flows over the past decade.
The table below provides a detailed picture of temporary entries in selected OECD countries by category of workers in 1992 and 2002–2004.
Table 1. Entries of temporary workers in selected OECD countries by principal categories, 1992, 2002–2004 (Thousands)
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